The
opposite of
Merton's
self-fulfilling prophecy. In this situation a
prediction is proven
false because so many people know about the
prediction. It's more than a little
self referential since many of the aforementioned
predections are
generalizations generated by
sociologists - so much for
scientific objectivity. Some
sociologists have even attributed this to a "
wait and see what happens"
mentality in the would be
participants. This
phenomenon is
valuable because it not only illustrates the lack of
precision in predicting
crowd behavior but opens up a whole new area of
deviance study.
The most obvious examples of this are the paranoia induced by the Y2K bug speculations. All the continual rumors about the end of civilization and militia groups forming huge post-apocalyptic clans almost jaded people into being calm. The powers that be assumed that New Year's Eve was going to be the riot to end all riots and not a whole lot happened. Here in Denver, the downtown area was more populated with police in riot gear than rioters. The barricades, tear gas cannisters, and kevlar vests were a joke. The script was there but there were no actors.
Of course, the opposite effect is often true. Year after year sports fans destroy downtown areas with massive arrests and injuries. The tone of the prediction probably plays a major role in this. Crowds are, in the end, composed of people and sometimes (stress the some here) they are reluctant to be part of the herd.